( sorry for the wired question )
researchers in New York city did a study on ice cream sales and murder rates in the city. this graph was included in the results
after seeing this graph as a picture with the headline "ice cream sales causes murder rates to increase" shared on social media by her best friend's second cousin, the president of a prominent HOA in the Hamptons decided to petition to ban the sale of ice cream so that people would stop being murdered .
this is the question - compare and contrast what you see on the graph.
second part to the question - was the HOA president right for doing so ? what other factors could have contributed to both the rise in ice cream sales and murders? is this an example of correlation or causation?
Answers
The presence of a correlation between statistical variables is an indication
of the existence of a relationship variables, it however, does not imply
direct causation.
Part one:
The similarities of the graphs are;
The rate of change in the sale ice cream and rate of murder are almost equal.The peak of ice cream sales and murder rate occur at the same time of the year.The rate of decrease in the sale of ice cream and murder rate are equal between the months of July and December.The differences are;
The shape of the ice cream sale graph is more bell shapes than the graph of murder rates.The murder rates occur over a slightly more longer period than than the sale of ice cream.There is a sharp decrease in the murder rate in the month of February while the ice cream sales increases steadily from January to July.Second part;
The HOA president's petition is in line with the social media post based on the graph.
The graph shows a strong correlation between murder rates and ice cream sales, however, selling ice cream, and murder are unrelated events.
The correlation between the sale of ice cream and murder is an indication of the existence of a common third factor.
Based on the time of the year dependence of the two variables, which corresponds to hot and cold weather, there is a correlation of both the murder rate and ice cream sales with temperature.
Therefore, the HOA president is not right for doing so
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